The reasons for war are complicated. One cannot simply cite that Germany invaded Poland and started WWII. Why did Germany invade Poland? If we dig deeper we find the harsh reparations of WWI caused many of the factors that led to WWII. And many of the issues that surrounded the Franco Prussian War instigated WWI and so on and so on.
When we look to the Pacific and Far East of the 1930s we see issues that led to the bombing of Pearl Harbor. It was not that Japan decided they wanted to start a fight with the US. That kind of pure aggression would have been crazy in either a person or a nation state. I am going to focus on one of the strands of the gordian knot that is WWII. And believe it or not, there is a modern political point I want to make. To get to that point I will have to undertake some background as much for my own clarity as anything. And yes, I can see your eyes glazing over in boredom already.
This isn't classroom history, there will not be a test and there will not be a list of dates and names to remember. It is Hoosierboy history and I hope to make it moderately entertaining. I will do my best to refuse to go down the various paths and tunnels that open up via my historical ADD and endeavor to stick to the main point. As always, I am certain there will be inaccuracies and errors and I welcome correction in the comments. Stay with me for a little bit and this long post will have a point. A long-winded point for sure, but that is my way. You should know that by now.
In the late thirties Japan was embroiled in a war with China. We will not get into the weeds with a discussion on that nasty bit of business, but only a passing mention that the aggression in China predates Hitler's European expansionism. If you want more information look up "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere". I would have opted for a better and more accurate name for the doctrine had I been in charge of Japan like "What's good for Japan is good for the rest of you East Asians because we said so" or something similar.
Anyway, the Japanese were thrashing China like a schoolyard bully and worse (see Nanjing). In response, the good old US of A slapped an embargo in imports of oil and scrap steel to Japan.
So what you ask?
Japan is slightly smaller than California. A beautiful country, it lacks the natural resources of the Golden State. In particular, to feed their early twentieth century burgeoning manufacturing and increasing demand for war materiel, Japan needed oil and steel. Guess what pre-war nation had loads of oil and cheap steel? Ta-da, the greedy Americans. Our exports supported the Japanese economy. To show our disapproval of Japan's on-going nastiness in China we said we won't ship you anymore oil and scrap steel so suck it up Tojo.
Japan looked around and noticed that Malaysia and the Philippines and Vietnam and many of the countries in Southeast Asia had resources Japan could use. Much to Japan's chagrin, other countries like the British and French and the Dutch and the Americans were already sucking up those natural resources. Sure, Japan reasoned, we could just go and take what we want; all of those other countries have their hands full fighting that Hitler guy and the powerful German military machine. Who is going to stop us?
Wait, they discovered, those boys over in America are not at war. What if the Americans decide to intervene? "We cannot win a war with the United States long-term," said the military experts. Heck, the Japanese military leaders thought (but would never ever ever say it aloud), we are having issues subduing the backwards Chinese and Koreans.
One bright fellow said how about we destroy their navy? Either we will hurt them so bad it will take years to recover or maybe, if we are lucky, the Americans decided the pain is not worth the fight and we can work out favorable terms? We have nothing to lose, he reasoned. So the Japanese army and navy drew up plans to take over the Pacific and Southeast Asia in one fell swoop. They devised secret plans and camouflaged their training; a waste of time since no one was really looking anyway. The Europeans were embroiled in their own war, most of the Australian army shipped of to fight for the British in Africa, and the Americans were being Americans, too busy watching and secretly making side bets on that big to-do in Europe.
Then Surprise! on December 7, 1941 (I know I said I would not clutter up this already too-long post with dates, but that one is important) and the Japanese attacked our fleet at Pearl Harbor Hawaii and sunk a good chunk of the important ships. Except the aircraft carriers were not at home and the Japanese said "Oh Crap" and hightailed it to see what would happen next. What happened was lots of death and destruction.
Why am I telling you all of this interesting but perhaps not yet obviously pertinent information? Well I am glad you asked. Let's fast forward about 85 years. The big dog in Asia is now China. Their manufacturing plants spew out cheap goods of various quality levels ranging from excellent to poor. Many of those goods are shipped to the US to the tune of around 500 billion dollar's worth. That is about 15% of China's economy. To put that in scale, Walmart would be one of China's top ten trading partners if it was its own country. Don't think Target or any of your other favorite stores are any different (hello Family Dollar).
What do you think the world's second largest economy (and second largest military) will do when Trump slaps a 60% tariff on Chinese goods? They will certainly retaliate. Half of our soybean exports go to China. It is estimated that US exports to China account for 1.1 million US Jobs. China dominates the supply chains for critical and everyday goods into the US. China will not take destroying 15-20% of their economy laying down. In the best case, everything you buy will go up in price. A lot. Domestic and other foreign manufacturers will not be able to cover the increased demand and prices will soar. No one, even the Communists, can escape the immutable law of supply and demand. You will pay more for goods, supposing you can get them. Think inflation sucks under Biden? Try on Trump's tariff plan.
The worst case scenario is the Japanese approach from the last century. Desperate countries strike out. The last thing the Chairman wants is a billion hungry and angry Chinese peasants. Tiananmen Square scared the pants off the Communist Party in China. They are not going to let some stupid Americans foul up the works.
Whether we like it or not, since the fall of the Soviet Union, a big chunk of the world is sick of the United States lording it over everyone. Plenty of nations would not mind seeing our country reduced a size or two and if China started it, would certainly like to get in a kick or two while we are down. Can anyone be certain the French or Germans or Japanese would join in on our side? They may not jump to China's aid, but I bet there would be a bunch of neutrals out there.
History never repeats, but it does offer lessons.
