It is my least favorite time of year. I am not talking about pumpkin everything, nor cool nights and mornings, nor even Halloween. Nope, it is business planning time for next year. Forecasts are set, budgets are planned, goals are cemented.
I don’t want to “sandbag” if estimated sales are too low then it reflects badly on my efforts. If I forecast too high I will spend next year explaining why I missed my numbers. I have to “Goldilocks” it.
There are two issues. First , the customer does not know what he will do next year. Some goofy sales guy is going through this same guessing game at his company, driving their forecasts to their suppliers (me). Second, , after I go through all of this calculation and spreadsheet mayhem, some accountant somewhere will rule on high and my boss will (at the direction of his boss, etc.) tell me “No, here is what your forecast should be” (always higher), and I am back to massage the numbers in my spreadsheet. And next year I get to explain each month why I missed the forecast I never agreed to in the first place.
It has been this way at every company I ever worked.
I will work and calculate, and rub my crystal ball anyway to try and give it my best guesstimate. I have all but my really big customer finished. I should wrap it up today.
Heh, we are cutting hours here at work because the projection guys went a wee bit "high"..................
ReplyDeleteContinue rubbing your crystal balls.
ReplyDeleteHA! You are my nemesis. I am the plant manager that has to budget per your goldilocks guess (that is never even close) and have to answer every month why I missed my budget. This year, I told my controller to just match the leverage that corp asked for because it will be whatever they ask for - not wasting time putting together a false budget that is wrong anyway.
ReplyDeleteBahaha. I, CaptainSQL, lord of the Pivot Table, Grand Poo-Bah of KPI see all, control all from high above on the mighty throne of Analysis of Variance! You underlings are mere tools, pawns if you will, of my nefarious schemes! Dance! Dance minions! Lord Codd and Date command you!
DeleteThe CFO should tell us the budgets and be done with it
DeleteDo you ever win at this?
ReplyDeleteSometimes the customer buys more than expected. Usually I have a project or unexpected new business that helps me make my budget/forecast.
Delete